More western parity. Aside from the Padres, everyone is in this, but no one good enough to run away, and in theory, they may be bad enough to let the Padres sneak in. The Giants and Dodgers could have perhaps raised themselves to a higher level with a few key signings that they didn't make in the winter, but instead remain incomplete, having left the door open for the young guns in Denver.
1. Colorado Rockies:
2009 Record : 92-70
2010 Over/Under Wins: 84.5
My Projected Record: 93-69
Lineup: Carlos Gonzalez's 2009 line of .284(.314 in his last 52), 13 HR and 16 SB came in just over half a season of work, and he peaked near the end. He is an absolutely complete player, to compliment the superstar playing short, and never once looked over his head. Of the 8 men in their slated everyday lineup, 5 of them should hit 20 home runs, and the other 3 are their catcher, Iannetta, who still has pop, for a catcher, and may have some upside left in him, Dexter Fowler, who is a fine outfielder and should steal a pile of bagsif he can get on base more often, and Todd Helton, whose bat has remained productive despite the latter years power drop, though he may be the weakest link here. This Colorado lineup is well-rounded and super young, much more the type that can be sustained and built upon than 2007's surprise series team, and should 2 of Stewart, Barmes, Iannetta , Fowler or Hawpe really find their way, this could be an elite lineup that is even better defensively than the Colorado unit in 2007 that put up the best team fielding percentage in MLB history.
Rotation: The Rockies staff should be good enough to support them Ubaldo Jimenez is a stud, a 200-K type, low 3 ERA pitcher, and the rest of the gang can pitch innings and, most importantly, get an awful lot of ground ball outs, a cherished trait when you're a mile high. The wild card is Jeff Francis, who appeared 2 years ago to be headed towards ace-hood, only to have a stinker of an '08 campaign until major injuries derailed him. If he returns, and is effective, this could be a very good staff.
Bullpen: Huston Street surprised last year as one of the most dependable 9th inning men around, and he has help with Betancourt, Corpas and a heap of other names behind him, which is how good bullpens happen: strength in numbers.
The X-factor: Keep momentum going. They need to avoid an '08-esque flop.
Fantasy Pick: Carlos Gonzalez=Matt Kemp
Fantasy Un-Pick: Todd Helton. Stick a fork in him.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers:
2009 Record: 95-67
2010 Over/Under Wins: 85
My Projected Record: 90-72
Lineup: The Dodgers have a great lineup, this much is clear. Ethier, Kemp, Manny can be a brutal 2-3-4, and everyone else can hit and get on base. The biggest dissapointment, probably, over the last couple of years has been James Loney's simply average production, but he's still a young player, and for what it's worth, I hear he thinks this is the year, but who doesn't say that? 2nd base may be an issue, as I can't envision Ronnie Belliard lighting the world on fire, or Blake DeWitt doing anything at all, but the rest of the lineup is solid enough that this should not matter. Defensively they could be more mobile, but they're not weak.
Rotation: Kershaw and Billingsley are supposed to be #1 material, and they are that, but they will really need to do it this year. After them, the LA staff is uninspiring, old and injury-prone, and it seems like every Dodger fan is fuming over their lack of any SP signing, understandably so. If Kershaw and Billingsley really put it all together, than the Kuroda-Padilla-Stults-whoever else bandwagon should fare well enough, but none of them can be depended on.
Bullpen: Probably their most complete element. Fireballer Broxton is among the best, and he's got a former closer as his lefty setup man in George Sherrill, and some excellent arms in Troncoso and Belisario behind him.
X-Factor: The McCourt divorce debacle. There's been a lot of discussion about it, and it certainly seems to have affected their spending, but I'm not as sure as everyone else is that it will have anything to do with the on-field product.
Fantasy Pick: Matt Kemp. It's not a wild pick, but the Beltran comparisons are on point, and this should be his entry into Beltran's '03-06 years.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Rafael Furcal. Appears to be in decline, and speed tends to go sooner than later, which is his most marketable commodity.
3. San Francisco Giants:
2009 Record: 88-74
2010 Over/Under Wins: 82.5
My Projected Record: 81-81
Lineup: Ha. Sandoval's pretty good. There's not another man in this lineup who truly deserves to be a major league regular at his position. Next.
Rotation: The bread and butter. Back-to-back Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum is the best of the best right now, and Matt Cain isn't far off of that pace. Zito seemed to comeback a bit last year, and Jonathan Sanchez may be headed for good things, himself. It's just an awesome rotation, but it's wasted. In the NHL, these Giants might win, if SP's are the answer to goalies, but you can't trap in baseball.
Bullpen: Brian Wilson, despite his fohawk, and that demented gesture that he makes, is a very good closer, pitching in front of solid arms with different looks, only furthering the strength of their pitching attack.
X-Factor: They need steroids.
Fantasy Pick: Barry Zito can be had for very cheap, particularly as he is ignored behind Lincecum and Cain, and finished '09 strongly. I like him as a numbers-getter at the back end of a fantasy staff.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Buster Posey. What has he done? He may start the year in the minors.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks:
2009 Record: 70-92
2010 Over/Under Wins: 82.5
My Projected Record: 80-82
Lineup: I had forgotten that Conor Jackson's season-spoiling injury last year was something called "Valley Fever". Jeez. Mark Reynolds blew up last year, as did Justin Upton, and the addition of Adam LaRoche should give the DBacks more pop than they've had. In other spots, there are mixed results: Kelly Johnson and Stephen Drew both appear to be replacement level players, while Chris Young and Conor Jackson could be better than that or worse than that, and my guess is worse, on both counts, particularly Jackson. Miguel Montero is a great value behind the plate, and figures to improve.
Rotation: AZ made well for themselves in the Edwin Jackson deal, and his presence, plus a return from Webb should make this rotation a very good one behind ace Dan Haren, though 4 and 5 is an odd contest between ex-prospects from other places. Webb's ability to rebound from injury is the make or break, obviously.
Bullpen: Not great, and yes, I still love Aaron Heilman. From the closer on down to the long relief, their pen is a collection of so-so middle relief.
X-Factor: They're better, this much is certain, but are they that much better that they can contend, coming off of a 70-win year? Adam LaRoche and Edwin Jackson alone are not enough for that. Webb will have to be CY Young Webb.
Fantasy Pick: Miguel Montero. I always like value at catcher, and here's some.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Stephen Drew. He's been the darling of certain managers for a while now. Let them have him.
5. San Diego Padres:
2009 Record: 75-87
2010 Wins Over/Under: 71
My Projected Record: 67-95
Lineup: Not much better than the other San. Adrian Gonzalez is obviously the shining star, but he very well could be gone by season's end, and he's most of the show. Kyle Blanks is raw and undeveloped, but could smack some bombs. I'm not sold on Chase Headley, who is where he belongs at 3B and is in a statement year. The rest of the lineup is soft, period, and I don't care how many foul balls David Eckstein hits.
Rotation: Weird. Headed up by Kevin Correia, who has the perfect name for a Padre pitcher (I don't know why, it just fits) and Jon Garland and rounded out by one-time phenom turned bust Chris Young and some interesting younger arms in Latos (more interesting) and Clayton Richard (less so, though no one who dons a Padres uni is ever that interesting, anyways)
Bullpen: Heath Bell is great, but I always believe that an elite closer is a luxury that a rebuilding team has no business having.
X-Factor: The only story coming out of SD this year will be whether or not A-Gon gets dealt. In my eyes, it's the right time to move him, because they're just not close enough to being able to use his prime well. Both sides need it. Otherwise, the most boring club on earth will sputter on.
Fantasy Pick: Kyle Blanks. Going undrafted a lot, should hit for decent power.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Kevin Correia. being drafted ahead of some quality pitchers, simply for the Petco factor. He won't carry anyone's staff.
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