This is the first of 6 installments in which I will successfully prognosticate exactly what is coming in 7 months during which baseball is to be played in 2010.I encourage any of my readers/friends to comment on my thoughts with their thoughts.
As a fan of the Mets and Red Sox, I wan to finish these off with the AL and NL East Divisions, everyone's favorite divisions to love or hate, and so I will begin out west.
1. Texas Rangers:
2009 record: 87-75
2010 Over/Under wins: 83.5
My projected record: 89-73
'Cuz Nolan said so. In all seriousness, this team has jumped from 75 wins in '07, to 79 in '08, up to 87 in '09. The biggest difference has been the beginnings of a makeover of the oft-maligned pitching culture in Texas. Mike Maddux has clearly made a difference down there, and their staff, while not the stuff of legends, is very deep and promising to get better with the addition of Rich Harden and the maturation of everyone else. Assuming Feldman, McCarthy, Hunter, Feliz and whoever else may find their way into the rotation remains at least where they were a year ago, the staff should get them consistently to what has become a very sturdy 'pen. I'd like to thank Omar Minaya for his excellent scouting on Darren O'Day...
The lineup will remain the Texas lineup, and maybe get a little better, based on Michael Young's resurgence since moving to 3rd, and a hunch I have on Josh Hamilton, assuming this year remains drama-free for him. To me, the progression of a good baseball team is apparent here, and this team pitches 9 innings, fields well, and crushes the ball. I expect these teams to beat on one another all year, and these guys to come out on top.
Fantasy Pick: Josh Hamilton, because he's always got comebacks in him.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Julio Borbon, because the Rangers aren't even sold on him, while youth-thirsty owners and drafters are.
2. Seattle Mariners:
2009 Record: 85-77
2010 Over/Under Wins: 82.5
My projected record: 86-76
Their 1-2 punch is as good as any, and that should account for about 35 or so of those wins, if not more. Their successful pursuit of Cliff Lee, without losing an awful lot, has certainly rocketed them back into the stratosphere of major league relevance. Why won't they win the division? Because Figgins is a nice addition to the lineup, but his style of play and skillset does not add anything momentous to it. They needed a power bat, badly, and if Milton Bradley's career has shown me anything, it is that he will not rebound in Seattle. If he counts as a big power addition, then based on last year, Daniel Murphy is a power bat. They can win the West if I'm wrong about Bradley, and if Erik Bedard is effective and healthy if and when he returns to the rotation, because if that happened, they'd have a 1-2-3 punch like no other. I've never liked the Mariners, but based on the way things just always were when I was growing up, there's something comforting about them not being terrible anymore.
Fantasy Pick: Franklin Gutierrez. I thought he was going into this year's draft as a sleeper with a lot of hype, but based on the drafts I've been in to this point, people aren't buying it yet. He's a good player, who will have a few very nice tablesetters ahead of him in the lineup in Ichiro, Figgins and Lopez.
Fantasy Un-Pick: David Aardsma. There's been a rotating closer door in Seattle for a while, even when someone has appeared to step up and claim the role. Aardsma spent a lot of time in his career as a mediocre reliever.
3. Los Angeles Angels:
2009 Record: 97-65
2010 Over/Under Wins: 85
My projected record: 86-76
The Angels may not have gotten that much worse, though the loss of Figgins is noticeable and Lackey for Pineiro sans Dave Duncan is a huge dropoff. More than their dropoff, though, which should be minimized by a staff that is still deep and some very nice developing bats, is that while they have gotten a little worse, their competition has gotten a lot better, collectively. Not since the A's were still a force have the Angels had to play anyone on a regular basis, save the rare visit from a jet-lagged east coast powerhouse. I won't say that they can't win this, but I don't see it as likely. The interesting things to watch will be how Morales and Rivera build on monstrous years in '09, and more interesting, and perhaps more important to their success than anything else, will be how goes the put-up or shut-up campaign for perpetual uber-prospect Brandon Wood, the third of the Morales-Kendrick-Wood triumvirate.
Fantasy Pick: Kendry Morales. Figures to join the ranks of elite 1B after a gigantic '09 that did not look flukish, and shouldn't have been if the scouting was right.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Juan Rivera, because he's getting older, can get hurt, and seems to have an on-again off-again pattern.
Oakland Athletics:
2009 Record: 75-87
2010 Over/Under Wins: 78.5
My projected record: 75-87
Why should they get better? This is a club that did nothing well last year, and more than anything, I can't decipher what the overall plan is here, and my guess is that if their front office had a little less star power in it, some people would have been fired. I get that the Sheets signing was all about low-risk, high-reward, but to what end? Presumably, to trade him, but that just feels like more treading water. There are too many A's that are below replacement level players, and not a lot of A's with real potential. If Sheets is good, and there is some progress elsewhere on the squad, particularly with some of the young pitching, and Duscherer's return, they may very well get a little better, but not at the rate of the rest of the division, and that will keep them right where they started.
Fantasy Pick: Jake Fox. If they give him the job at 1B, he will out-hit this whole team.
Fantasy Un-pick: Jack Cust. Barf.
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