The most intriguing thing about the AL Central, this season, is that it may be the worst division in baseball since the 2005 NL West.And no, I'm not taking the Royals as my sleeper to take a division and go deep into October again. I had to try once, right? In late Spring last year, when they were sitting in first, I was looking like a genius, but for the record I 100% called Greinke's Cy Young, in March.
No one in this division was all that good last year, and no one in this division really did anything noteworthy to change that coming into this year. If anything, the defending division champs, the closest thing to a good team from the '09 edition of the AL Central, just got a whole lot worse, losing Joe Nathan, the small-market version of Mariano Rivera, for the season. Oddly enough, I think this is good for baseball, because it A) keeps that door wide open for an AL East team to waltz into the Wild Card, which always keeps the ratings up, and B) creates scenarios like we had to end last season, with 2 fun, scrappy, if not super-talented teams in an absolute dogfight to crown a champion.
1. Chicago White Sox:
2009 Record: 79-83
2010 Over/Under Wins: 84
My Projected Record: 87-75
Lineup: A sound lineup in a hitter's park. What they lack, as of right now, is a deadly, middle-of-the-order presence, but the 1-9 pop and versatility should make up for that. Gordon Beckham and Carlos Quentin are the two candidates for that big bat position, but for Beckham it's a matter of development, and for Quentin it's a matter of rediscovery post-injury. Alexis Rios makes you scratch your head, as he once looked like an emerging superstar in Toronto, but seemed to level off at the current, very poor man's Matt Kemp level that he's been at for some time now; still quite a useful player. Mark Teahan could be a nice, Casey Blake-esque role player at 3rd; Alexei Ramirez looked downright anemic at the plate at times last season, and doesn't play SS well enough to justify that; Juan Pierre is slated to play the '05 Sox role of Scott Podsednik (though he won't be able to take David Wells deep in the ALDS), and Andruw Jones will probably hit a number of home runs at U.S. Cellular in between couch-sitting sessions at DH. Konerko and Pierzynski round off the lineup, as always, quietly providing some of the steadiest value out there. It's a good bunch, again hurting in a huge presence, and wasting some of the tools it possesses with a very poor collective OBP: If you don't hit it, it won't be a home run, and if you're not on base, you can't run. If I were Ozzie Guillen/Kenny Williams, I might look to find a new hitting coach after six years of Greg Walker's failure to help this issue.
Rotation: The best in the Central. Peavy may not be the hall-of-famer he looked like he might become, but he's a solid #1, and each of Buehrle, Danks and Floyd could slot in at #2 on most major league rosters. Freddy Garcia is as good of a 5th starter as anyone could ask for. This is a very solid staff, though a big drop-off or injury from one of the big players, specifically Peavy, who could be prone to such things, would change that, as the depth isn't really there.
Bullpen: Stellar. Jenks is the closer, and though Guillen seems to hate his guts, he's plenty serviceable. Matt Thornton has solidified himself as the new Scot Shields, the set-up men to end all set-up men, and behind him is former closer J.J. Putz and a former Thornton/Shields-ish presence, in his SD days, in Scott Linebrink. Tony Pena was quite good last year, as well, and there are more names to be had.
X-Factor: Carlos Quentin. If he returns to '08 form, the lineup goes from nice to scary, and the pitching they have, behind a lineup with a good Quentin, could take them places.
Fantasy Pick: Paul Konerko has been available late for about 4 years now to cruise right into your UTIL spot and hit 25-30 bombs with good average.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Just don't draft Alexei Ramirez. But you know that already, right?
2. Detroit Tigers:
2009 Record: 86-77 (includes one-game playoff)
2010 Over/Under Wins: 80.5
My Projected Record: 83-79
Lineup: The Tigres have an interesting lineup, full of youth and question-marks, but anchored by Manny Ramirez, V. 2, in Miguel Cabrera, and a potential spark in Johnny Damon. For all the hubbub surrounding the Yankees' acquisition of Granderson, Damon out-averaged, out-OBP'd, and outslugged Granderson by a good clip last season, and contrary to the cries of all Red Sox fans circa 2005, he's not at all washed up yet. Brandon Inge will be a huge piece here, as his major presence in the first half of '09 had a lot to do with the Tigers leading the division for as long as they did, and his total disappearance in the second half had a lot to do with their collapse. The word is that his knees were so badly hurt that he shouldn't have been playing in the first place, and he is coming back from surgery on them, but is this good or bad, and can we just expect Brandon Inge to hit 27 bombs again, healthy or not? The rest of the lineup is a mixture of usual suspect, decent-enough hitters, as in Gerald Laird, Carlos Guillen and Adam Everett, a quandary in left field with a Magglio who struggled so mightily last year that he was nearly cut, but then seemed to find himself, and 2 very raw rookies with decent upside in blue-chipper Austin Jackson and 2B Scott Sizemore. If the reactions to losing Jackson of many Yankee fans I've spoken with is any decent barometer, he may be a very good player, but when has the reaction of a Yankee fan ever been a decent barometer of anything?
Rotation: The Tigers have a potentially very good rotation on their hands, though the bottom end is very iffy. One major factor is that they are a fantastic defensive team, especially now that Guillen is a DH and Miggy is a 1B. Verlander is an open and shut star. Beneath him in the 2-3 will be a 22-yr old Rick Porcello, coming off a 14-win rookie campaign and a superb spring, which may mean more to a younger player than to a veteran, and Max Scherzer, another newcomer involved in the Granderson deal, who has looked raw and fragile at times, but has a superb K-rate, and the stuff to be an elite pitcher, per most talent evaluators, and folks around the game. The last 2 spots are a toss-up between Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman, and good old Dontrelle, all enjoying nice springs, and all with a lot of success and a lot of failure, to varying degrees, on their respective resumes. Still, it's not a bad group to be picking your 4 and 5 starters from, and here's my first ridiculous, over-the-top, probably won't happen prediction for 2010: Dontrelle Willis will make a comeback and win 15 games.
Bullpen: Could be a strength. For all the hating that Jose Valverde seems to get, and maybe it's just me, but it seems like there's been a beware sign around him wherever he goes, he's never done anything but be a very good closer. Zumaya figures to slot into the setup role, and once again, it will be a story of staying healthy or not, and harnessing his absolutely deadly stuff. Behind him is a large mix of decent arms with major league time behind them, and above all else, that is what middle relief is all about, depth of decent players. Some of them will find a good year.
The X-Factor: They ran this division for a while last year, and if they can remember that team, and not the one that blew it late, and get some of their various question marks to turn into exclamation points, they have the potential to be a good ballclub.
Fantasy Pick: Well, I made the Willis prediction, but he's still undraftable as of now, so otherwise, I'm going with Johnny Damon, who has been quite affordable in drafts so far, productive of a player as he is.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Brandon Inge. I just don't trust that he can ever come close to what he did last spring.
3. Minnesota Twins:
2009 Record: 87-76 (includes 1-game playoff)
2010 Over/Under Wins: 82.5
My Projected Record: 80-82
Lineup: BP, among other pillars of baseball wisdom, called this the best lineup in the division. I don't necessarily see it. The best 3-4? Absolutely. Mauer and Morneau can stand up to any 1-2 punch in the game, and it's fabulous for the Twins, and for baseball, that they were able to wrap Mauer up for as long as they did. Some of us may have just quit if he became a Yankee. Denard Span is a very solid leadoff man, and Cuddyer and Kubel should continue to provide nice, solid, that-guy pop. The rest of the infield, after Morneau and Mauer, is where the questions come up. Orlando Hudson could be a good pick-up, but after a lot of good pub early last year, he finished the season in LA quite forgettably, basically losing his job to Ronnie Belliard, and then went unsigned for a long time in the winter. J.J. Hardy is wildly streaky, and his hot streaks are fewer and farther between than ever, and Brendan Harris puts up low-end middle infielder numbers as a corner infielder. To me, the holes in this lineup somewhat negate the big presences elsewhere; there will be a number of lost 1-2-3 innings between the 7-8-9 here.
Rotation: Meh. Good enough to stay afloat, but lacking a stopper, lest Scott Baker steps it up a couple of notches. The Baker-Slowey-Pavano-Blackburn-Liriano-etc. bunch looks an awful lot to me like the White Sox staff without Peavy, or the Tigers without Verlander. Liriano is obviously a big factor here, as his potential ranges from woefully ineffective to dominant, though the latter seems increasingly unlikely.
Bullpen: Ouch. It's still a very nice collection of arms, perhaps the deepest and most able set-up crew out there, but boy does no Nathan hurt. His loss makes it a good pen, rather than an elite pen, and with their milk-toast rotation the elite pen was something they needed.
X-Factor: Baker and Slowey need to each take one more step, and go from a 2 and a 3 to a 1 and a 2, though a resurgent Liriano could make that irrelevant. I won't discount them, as the central is for the taking.
Fantasy Pick: Joe Mauer. I know this is far from sleeper territory, but to me, he's a top-3 pick, rather than a top-10, especially if we're talking keeper.
Fantasy Un-Pick: The bullpen. I have a feeling the closer discussion is going to go on for quite some time here, so I would tend to stay away until it's settled, and not go wild on any one guy.
4. Kansas City Royals:
2009 Record: 65-97
2010 Over/Under Wins: 71.5
My Projected Record: 73-89
Lineup: Billy Butler and the scrapheap. With the exception of DeJesus, who is a nice enough player in RF, literally every other member of this lineup is a cast-off from elsewhere: Podsednik, Guillen, Ankiel, Betancourt, Kendall, Getz, Fields. Not a total disaster, but no real potential anywhere, though if Gordon gets healthy he'll certainly take another hack at it, and Brayan Pena could turn heads behind the plate.
Rotation: Greinke is a beast; I really hope he gets to contend someday. After Greinke, Gil Meche is a nice, seasoned vet, and the rest of the bunch is a ragtag collection of longshots, though they should at least provide innings. No one in this rotation is awful, like years past, but no one after Greinke is very good.
Bullpen: I've said before that a good bullpen is probably a luxury that a bad team can't afford, but Soria is good enough to hold on to. The rest of the arms aren't half bad, either, and this should win them some games, when a quality start is put together.
X-Factor: More rebuilding in this great little baseball town, but Dayton Moore better quicken the pace. Some of this offseason's moves were puzzling.
Fantasy Pick: Brayan Pena. Should have the C job at some point, and may make some noise.
Fantasy Un-Pick: I really like Alex Gordon, but he's been that late round flier that doesn't really pan out for too long to burn a pick on again.
5. Cleveland Indians:
2009 Record: 65-97
2010 Over/Under Wins: 74.5
My Projected Record: 72-90
Lineup: Underwhelming. Sizemore had a down year, which was still productive, and should be the least of their concerns, and Shin-Soo Choo is making quite the name for himself. The biggest stories will be the seasons of Michael Brantley and Matt LaPorta, both acquired for CC Sabathia, both with a lot of hype behind them, and probably both with opportunities to play quite a bit. Besides them are aging Peraltas, Hafners, Branyans, etc. but their presence at the very least creates something worth watching.
Rotation: Disastrous. Carmona hasn't found it for a while now, and though Justin Masterson has some ceiling to play with, no one else really has anywhere to go here. This is a staff of #4-5 starters, top to bottom.
Bullpen: Forgettable, even if Wood appears at some point. I'll always like Joe Smith, but strictly as a gimmicky, matchup kinda guy, and right now he's the 2nd best arm in their pen.
X-Factor: They're a bad team, but they seem to be building the right way, and this is the first season that the biggest blocks of that will start to show up.
Fantasy Pick: Michael Brantley. Figures to play a big role in this offense.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Jhonny Peralta. The on-again, off-again cycle is done.





