SEASON PREVIEW: WE MUST GO EAST

I've never liked the NL Central much; I find Cub fans to be the worst sort of people out there. I don't feel the need to go over why. I find Cardinal fans oddly smug about their status as fans, in a city that national broadcasters (many of whom are directly tied in one way or another to the Cardinal organization) will never cease to remind you is just a great baseball town. Thing is, it's just not that special. Did anyone else watch the '06 series? The atmosphere? Underwhelmed. That said, I wanted to do an NL Centra preview, but time constraints have prevented it, so in a brief summation, I'm going with everyone else, and picking the Cards to win it, followed by the Brewers, Cubs, Reds, Astros and Pirates. The Reds seem to be a sexy sleeper pick, but I hopped on that train last year, and it failed me, plus Laynce Nix is starting in Left Field. Boring as it is, the Cards are probably better than the rest of the Central, all stacked up in 1-2 in the rotation, and 3-4 in the lineup, end of story.

As for the mighty Easts, that might is perhaps less in question than it has ever been. The good, or great teams, have remained so, while others in those divisions may have now joined their ranks. Most of these projections/predictions, what have you, are a gimmicky way to briefly lay out and analyze the 30 teams in the Major Leagues, without any real firm conviction behind my expectations for my own accuracy, but I will say this, unequivocally, going out on the shortest limb possible: the World Champs will come out of an East division. Now, to each one, with the AL first.

AL EAST

1. New York Yankees
2009 Record: 103-59
2010 Over/Under Wins: 98
My Projected Record: 100-62
Lineup: I almost chuckled when I typed the word "lineup". All judgment aside, (and though I hate the Yankees as much as anyone who hates the Yankees, I really don't have a moral qualm with them spending money) of their 5 infielders, 4 are the highest paid at their respective positions of all time, and the 5th, Cano, is probably a more dangerous than 2 of the others. Their 7 and 8 hitters may each hit 30 home runs, and though I still think that Damon>Granderson, Matsui>Johnson, and Melky>Gardner, they'll score a nightmarish amount of runs, and probably make a deal for someone to replace Gardner/Winn at some point in July. Defensively, they're somewhat iffy, with Granderson's arm and read on balls a liability at times, and not a lot of infield range anywhere outside of 1B, but such things are forgettable when your lineup could stop the Spanish Armada. Let me be clear, no matter what they tell you, pitching and defense do not win championships; good baseball teams, composed however, do, and this team does it all.
Rotation: A stellar staff gets a nice upgrade in Javier Vasquez, and remains unchanged elsewhere, despite wildly unnecessary panic and ranting about their lack of a defined 5th starter. Who cares? The same crew of guys jockeying for that life and death 5th spot were doing the same for the 4th and 5th spot last year, and you still won the series. Whether it's Hughes, Joba, Aceves, or anyone else, the Yankee staff is among the best.
Bullpen: The only potentially weak link in the Bronx, as illustrated by last night's opener. Mo is Mo, and though many of us have been patiently waiting for 16 years for him to lose it, I won't predict it, it just has to happen someday. Behind him, there are a lot of question marks. Joba, by my estimation, is cooked. His velocity has dropped, it seems even out of the pen now, and more than anything else, Joba-Mania is long gone, the "Joba Rules" shirts now the stuff of discount racks, translation, the public's confidence in him is gone, and to me, that was half of the wave he was riding. He's a decent, ML level pitcher, but he'll never be a star, and may not be able to anchor the pen this year. There is Chan Ho Park, who surprised a lot of people by being effective last year, David Robertson, who is still somewhat of an unknown quantity, Damaso Marte, whose usefulness is limited, and then long relief in Aceves and Mitre. Gone are 5 arms from the championship team last year, and I expect much wailing and gnashing of teeth over the bullpen in the months to come, with the end result of about 3 less wins than last year.
X-Factor: The main reason that I'm glad not to be a Yankee fan is that they are always supposed to win, making a championship a little less sweet than it may otherwise be, and anything but a miserable failure, so once again, here they are, they're the best on paper, and the most expensive, and they should win. They'll win the East, and then the playoffs are the playoffs.
Fantasy Pick: A.J. Burnett has been going late-ish in drafts I've been in, even in Yankee fan heavy leagues, and is obviously going to be a very valuable SP.
Fantasy Un-Pick: People always pay extra for the shiny new Yankee, and for this reason I would steer clear of Granderson.

2. Boston Red Sox
2009 Record: 95-67
2010 Over/Under Wins: 95
My Projected Record: 97-65
Lineup: Much has been made of the new "all-defense, all-pitching" approach of the Red Sox, but that's mildly ridiculous, when you consider that their lineup consists of a leadoff hitter that lead the league in SB's a year ago, an AL MVP of 2 years ago, a 3 hitter whose plate approach is unmatched anywhere, a catcher eclipsed at the plate only by Joe Mauer, 3 players coming off dissapointing 20+ home run seasons, a 3B who once, however asterisky* hit 50 home runs, and a SS coming off of a breakout year. Yes, they have a little less oomph sans Bay, but they still have an elite lineup, which above all else is very dynamic, and very deep.
Rotation: The best in baseball, period. John Lackey, who has arguably been the best pitcher in his division for 5 years or so, slots in to his new staff at number 3 behind Lester and Beckett, and though the order of 4-5, and which 2 of Wakefield, Buchholz and Matsuzaka will be in those spots, is still in some question, the upside of Buchholz, the stability of Wakefield, and the potential for Dice-K to be a very good pitcher at times leave little room for concern. One way or another, the staff will round itself out, and I wouldn't give Beckett's start last night much significance. Aces tend to get rocked early, especially when they're about 10 hours removed from a contract extension.
Bullpen: To fit the staff, this pen could also make a run at being baseball's best. Papelbon is nearly automatic, despite an ugly exit to the ALDS, and behind him is an awful lot of raw talent and potential in Daniel Bard, and some very good, consistent arms in Okajima, Ramirez and Delcarmen. Newcomer Scot Schoenweis should stay out of the way as often as possible.
X-Factor: In the end, I see the Yankees' ability to bludgeon teams edging out Boston for the East, but this is still one of the best teams in baseball. The verdict on this team, as for the Yankees, should come in October, and their staff certainly gives them a chance by then.
Fantasy Pick: Youkilis, like all Red Sox, gets drafted early, but he's worth it, bringing constant, almost slump-free production and 1B/3B eligibility.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Adrian Beltre will probably be a productive enough player in Boston, but not enough to justify a middle round pick, which is where he's been going.

3. Tampa Bay Rays
2009 Record: 84-78
2010 Over/Under Wins: 88.5
My Projected Record: 87-75
Lineup: Another very good lineup. Longo, Crawford and Pena will all do their jobs, but the more intersting folks to look at will be B.J. Upton, looking to rebound after a very down, injury-plagued year, and Ben Zobrist/Jason Bartlett, who both had wildly unexpected explosions last year, both well beyond typical emerge-on-to-the-scene age. Pat Burrell will either prove that he's done, or contract year it up, but ff anything, small-market ennui will be the scourge of this very good lineup all season. Everyone wants to talk about Pena and Crawford, their expiring contracts, and the grim realities of competing in a division with both the Yankees and the Red Sox, and if the Rays are 10+ games out in July, you'd have to bet they'll shop one or both of those two. (Pena to the Mets, anyone?)
Rotation: This is the area where the Rays will turn themselves into either an "oh well, it's just too bad they play in the AL East" team, or a team that can topple one of Boston or New York. Each of Shields, Garza an Price have the potential to be deadly starters, and if they can all click, anchored by decent consistency at the bottom end of the rotation, they can make a run at it.
Bullpen: Definitely an improved area with the arrival of Rafael Soriano, replacing an aged Troy Percival and a J.P. Howell. Reserves stay the same, essentially, with a solid group in Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler, and at some point J.P. Howell, currently rehabbing a shoulder injury.
X-Factor: The aforementioned starting pitching.
Fantasy Pick: My initial feeling was to avoid Zobrist and Bartlett, but now my feeling is that everyone else felt the same way, thus there are 2 players in a strong lineup, coming off stellar years, attainable at reasonable prices.
Fantasy Un-Pick: I don't believe in B.J. Upton.

4. Baltimore Orioles
2009 Record: 64-98
2010 Over/Under Wins: 73
My Projected Record: 79-83
Lineup: For the first time in some time, save a flukish first half in 2004, it can honestly be said that things are beginning to go in the right direction for the O's. For a bottom-feeding team, they really aren't weak at any position, and feature the sort of lineup, headlined by Jones, Markakis, Wieters, Riemold and Roberts, but reinforced on all sides by quality players, that would be a force in most divisions not on the east coast. If anything, it's a real plus that most of that lineup is young, though right now it's not going to take them very far.
Rotation: Pretty much since that '04 club fell to earth, and everyone realized that Daniel Cabrera, Rodrigo Lopez and Sidney Ponson were not the next big 3, the Orioles have had the kinds of staffs that just made you laugh when you looked at them. This year, they don't have a good staff, but they have a passable one, for once. Kevin Millwood will offer them a quality start somewhere in the neighborhood of 3x/month, while Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz and Brad Bergesen have more time to mature. At the very least, these are real pitchers, not just guys throwing baseballs all over the place.
Bullpen: Surprisingly solid, which seems to be a theme in this division. Mike Gonzalez, if healthy, will sway around and close games, but Jim Johnson and Cla Meredith are nice options behind him, and veteran Mark Hendrickson should give them some decent long relief.
X-Factor: If the youth movement, particularly the pitching, which is not nearly as developed as the lineup, progresses slightly ahead of curve, and things go sour and deadline-dealy in Tampa, they could even threaten for 3rd. In the meantime, they should frustrate the Yankees and Red Sox plenty along the way.
Fantasy Pick: Garrett Atkins has fallen off the face of everyone's cheat sheet, and perhaps for good reason, but he has been a fine hitter before, and will sit in a decent lineup, in a new environment, and another great park to hit in.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Miggy at SS=mediocre option, Miggy at 3B=not an option.

5. Toronto Blue Jays
2009 Record: 75-87
2010 Over/Under Wins: 68
My Projected Record: 64-98
Lineup: Aaron Hill appears to be an elite 2B, but Adam Lind and Travis Snider, the supposed young studs in this mix, wildly underwhelm me, and there's not much else going on. I just can't believe Lyle Overbay is still kicking around at 1B. A bad lineup anywhere, a very bad lineup in this division. A lot of what-ifs and has-beens.
Rotation: Sean Marcum is a nice pitcher, though perhaps better suited as a #2-3, and Ricky Romero showed some very impressive flashes last season, but all in all the rotation is, similar to the staff, a mediocre mix of iffy players.
Bullpen: Not bad, but lacking a real closer presence. Jason Frasor just doesn't scare anyone, but they do have quite a bit of depth in relief, something they will probably be looking to deal in July.
X-Factor: At any given point, it is likely tat only one AL East team not called the Red Sox or Yankees can be in the dance, and while this role was theirs to take, the Jays just never took the one extra step needed over the last 6-7 years to get them there. Before they knew it, Tampa had caught them, and Baltimore is ready to now, so out goes Halladay and in comes a total rebuild. I don't see this ship turning in the right direction for a while. For starters, they need to find a way to unload Vernon Wells.
Fantasy Pick: Aaron Hill, because I like good fantasy 2B, and I don't really like much else in Toronto.
Fantasy Un-Pick: The Blue Jays

MLB SEASON PREVIEW INSTALLMENT 3: AL CENTRAL

The most intriguing thing about the AL Central, this season, is that it may be the worst division in baseball since the 2005 NL West.

And no, I'm not taking the Royals as my sleeper to take a division and go deep into October again. I had to try once, right? In late Spring last year, when they were sitting in first, I was looking like a genius, but for the record I 100% called Greinke's Cy Young, in March.

No one in this division was all that good last year, and no one in this division really did anything noteworthy to change that coming into this year. If anything, the defending division champs, the closest thing to a good team from the '09 edition of the AL Central, just got a whole lot worse, losing Joe Nathan, the small-market version of Mariano Rivera, for the season. Oddly enough, I think this is good for baseball, because it A) keeps that door wide open for an AL East team to waltz into the Wild Card, which always keeps the ratings up, and B) creates scenarios like we had to end last season, with 2 fun, scrappy, if not super-talented teams in an absolute dogfight to crown a champion.

1. Chicago White Sox:
2009 Record: 79-83
2010 Over/Under Wins: 84
My Projected Record: 87-75
Lineup: A sound lineup in a hitter's park. What they lack, as of right now, is a deadly, middle-of-the-order presence, but the 1-9 pop and versatility should make up for that. Gordon Beckham and Carlos Quentin are the two candidates for that big bat position, but for Beckham it's a matter of development, and for Quentin it's a matter of rediscovery post-injury. Alexis Rios makes you scratch your head, as he once looked like an emerging superstar in Toronto, but seemed to level off at the current, very poor man's Matt Kemp level that he's been at for some time now; still quite a useful player. Mark Teahan could be a nice, Casey Blake-esque role player at 3rd; Alexei Ramirez looked downright anemic at the plate at times last season, and doesn't play SS well enough to justify that; Juan Pierre is slated to play the '05 Sox role of Scott Podsednik (though he won't be able to take David Wells deep in the ALDS), and Andruw Jones will probably hit a number of home runs at U.S. Cellular in between couch-sitting sessions at DH. Konerko and Pierzynski round off the lineup, as always, quietly providing some of the steadiest value out there. It's a good bunch, again hurting in a huge presence, and wasting some of the tools it possesses with a very poor collective OBP: If you don't hit it, it won't be a home run, and if you're not on base, you can't run. If I were Ozzie Guillen/Kenny Williams, I might look to find a new hitting coach after six years of Greg Walker's failure to help this issue.
Rotation: The best in the Central. Peavy may not be the hall-of-famer he looked like he might become, but he's a solid #1, and each of Buehrle, Danks and Floyd could slot in at #2 on most major league rosters. Freddy Garcia is as good of a 5th starter as anyone could ask for. This is a very solid staff, though a big drop-off or injury from one of the big players, specifically Peavy, who could be prone to such things, would change that, as the depth isn't really there.
Bullpen: Stellar. Jenks is the closer, and though Guillen seems to hate his guts, he's plenty serviceable. Matt Thornton has solidified himself as the new Scot Shields, the set-up men to end all set-up men, and behind him is former closer J.J. Putz and a former Thornton/Shields-ish presence, in his SD days, in Scott Linebrink. Tony Pena was quite good last year, as well, and there are more names to be had.
X-Factor: Carlos Quentin. If he returns to '08 form, the lineup goes from nice to scary, and the pitching they have, behind a lineup with a good Quentin, could take them places.
Fantasy Pick: Paul Konerko has been available late for about 4 years now to cruise right into your UTIL spot and hit 25-30 bombs with good average.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Just don't draft Alexei Ramirez. But you know that already, right?


2. Detroit Tigers:
2009 Record: 86-77 (includes one-game playoff)
2010 Over/Under Wins: 80.5
My Projected Record: 83-79
Lineup: The Tigres have an interesting lineup, full of youth and question-marks, but anchored by Manny Ramirez, V. 2, in Miguel Cabrera, and a potential spark in Johnny Damon. For all the hubbub surrounding the Yankees' acquisition of Granderson, Damon out-averaged, out-OBP'd, and outslugged Granderson by a good clip last season, and contrary to the cries of all Red Sox fans circa 2005, he's not at all washed up yet. Brandon Inge will be a huge piece here, as his major presence in the first half of '09 had a lot to do with the Tigers leading the division for as long as they did, and his total disappearance in the second half had a lot to do with their collapse. The word is that his knees were so badly hurt that he shouldn't have been playing in the first place, and he is coming back from surgery on them, but is this good or bad, and can we just expect Brandon Inge to hit 27 bombs again, healthy or not? The rest of the lineup is a mixture of usual suspect, decent-enough hitters, as in Gerald Laird, Carlos Guillen and Adam Everett, a quandary in left field with a Magglio who struggled so mightily last year that he was nearly cut, but then seemed to find himself, and 2 very raw rookies with decent upside in blue-chipper Austin Jackson and 2B Scott Sizemore. If the reactions to losing Jackson of many Yankee fans I've spoken with is any decent barometer, he may be a very good player, but when has the reaction of a Yankee fan ever been a decent barometer of anything?
Rotation: The Tigers have a potentially very good rotation on their hands, though the bottom end is very iffy. One major factor is that they are a fantastic defensive team, especially now that Guillen is a DH and Miggy is a 1B. Verlander is an open and shut star. Beneath him in the 2-3 will be a 22-yr old Rick Porcello, coming off a 14-win rookie campaign and a superb spring, which may mean more to a younger player than to a veteran, and Max Scherzer, another newcomer involved in the Granderson deal, who has looked raw and fragile at times, but has a superb K-rate, and the stuff to be an elite pitcher, per most talent evaluators, and folks around the game. The last 2 spots are a toss-up between Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman, and good old Dontrelle, all enjoying nice springs, and all with a lot of success and a lot of failure, to varying degrees, on their respective resumes. Still, it's not a bad group to be picking your 4 and 5 starters from, and here's my first ridiculous, over-the-top, probably won't happen prediction for 2010: Dontrelle Willis will make a comeback and win 15 games.
Bullpen: Could be a strength. For all the hating that Jose Valverde seems to get, and maybe it's just me, but it seems like there's been a beware sign around him wherever he goes, he's never done anything but be a very good closer. Zumaya figures to slot into the setup role, and once again, it will be a story of staying healthy or not, and harnessing his absolutely deadly stuff. Behind him is a large mix of decent arms with major league time behind them, and above all else, that is what middle relief is all about, depth of decent players. Some of them will find a good year.
The X-Factor: They ran this division for a while last year, and if they can remember that team, and not the one that blew it late, and get some of their various question marks to turn into exclamation points, they have the potential to be a good ballclub.
Fantasy Pick: Well, I made the Willis prediction, but he's still undraftable as of now, so otherwise, I'm going with Johnny Damon, who has been quite affordable in drafts so far, productive of a player as he is.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Brandon Inge. I just don't trust that he can ever come close to what he did last spring.

3. Minnesota Twins:
2009 Record: 87-76 (includes 1-game playoff)
2010 Over/Under Wins: 82.5
My Projected Record: 80-82
Lineup: BP, among other pillars of baseball wisdom, called this the best lineup in the division. I don't necessarily see it. The best 3-4? Absolutely. Mauer and Morneau can stand up to any 1-2 punch in the game, and it's fabulous for the Twins, and for baseball, that they were able to wrap Mauer up for as long as they did. Some of us may have just quit if he became a Yankee. Denard Span is a very solid leadoff man, and Cuddyer and Kubel should continue to provide nice, solid, that-guy pop. The rest of the infield, after Morneau and Mauer, is where the questions come up. Orlando Hudson could be a good pick-up, but after a lot of good pub early last year, he finished the season in LA quite forgettably, basically losing his job to Ronnie Belliard, and then went unsigned for a long time in the winter. J.J. Hardy is wildly streaky, and his hot streaks are fewer and farther between than ever, and Brendan Harris puts up low-end middle infielder numbers as a corner infielder. To me, the holes in this lineup somewhat negate the big presences elsewhere; there will be a number of lost 1-2-3 innings between the 7-8-9 here.
Rotation: Meh. Good enough to stay afloat, but lacking a stopper, lest Scott Baker steps it up a couple of notches. The Baker-Slowey-Pavano-Blackburn-Liriano-etc. bunch looks an awful lot to me like the White Sox staff without Peavy, or the Tigers without Verlander. Liriano is obviously a big factor here, as his potential ranges from woefully ineffective to dominant, though the latter seems increasingly unlikely.
Bullpen: Ouch. It's still a very nice collection of arms, perhaps the deepest and most able set-up crew out there, but boy does no Nathan hurt. His loss makes it a good pen, rather than an elite pen, and with their milk-toast rotation the elite pen was something they needed.
X-Factor: Baker and Slowey need to each take one more step, and go from a 2 and a 3 to a 1 and a 2, though a resurgent Liriano could make that irrelevant. I won't discount them, as the central is for the taking.
Fantasy Pick: Joe Mauer. I know this is far from sleeper territory, but to me, he's a top-3 pick, rather than a top-10, especially if we're talking keeper.
Fantasy Un-Pick: The bullpen. I have a feeling the closer discussion is going to go on for quite some time here, so I would tend to stay away until it's settled, and not go wild on any one guy.

4. Kansas City Royals:
2009 Record: 65-97
2010 Over/Under Wins: 71.5
My Projected Record: 73-89
Lineup: Billy Butler and the scrapheap. With the exception of DeJesus, who is a nice enough player in RF, literally every other member of this lineup is a cast-off from elsewhere: Podsednik, Guillen, Ankiel, Betancourt, Kendall, Getz, Fields. Not a total disaster, but no real potential anywhere, though if Gordon gets healthy he'll certainly take another hack at it, and Brayan Pena could turn heads behind the plate.
Rotation: Greinke is a beast; I really hope he gets to contend someday. After Greinke, Gil Meche is a nice, seasoned vet, and the rest of the bunch is a ragtag collection of longshots, though they should at least provide innings. No one in this rotation is awful, like years past, but no one after Greinke is very good.
Bullpen: I've said before that a good bullpen is probably a luxury that a bad team can't afford, but Soria is good enough to hold on to. The rest of the arms aren't half bad, either, and this should win them some games, when a quality start is put together.
X-Factor: More rebuilding in this great little baseball town, but Dayton Moore better quicken the pace. Some of this offseason's moves were puzzling.
Fantasy Pick: Brayan Pena. Should have the C job at some point, and may make some noise.
Fantasy Un-Pick: I really like Alex Gordon, but he's been that late round flier that doesn't really pan out for too long to burn a pick on again.

5. Cleveland Indians:
2009 Record: 65-97
2010 Over/Under Wins: 74.5
My Projected Record: 72-90
Lineup: Underwhelming. Sizemore had a down year, which was still productive, and should be the least of their concerns, and Shin-Soo Choo is making quite the name for himself. The biggest stories will be the seasons of Michael Brantley and Matt LaPorta, both acquired for CC Sabathia, both with a lot of hype behind them, and probably both with opportunities to play quite a bit. Besides them are aging Peraltas, Hafners, Branyans, etc. but their presence at the very least creates something worth watching.
Rotation: Disastrous. Carmona hasn't found it for a while now, and though Justin Masterson has some ceiling to play with, no one else really has anywhere to go here. This is a staff of #4-5 starters, top to bottom.
Bullpen: Forgettable, even if Wood appears at some point. I'll always like Joe Smith, but strictly as a gimmicky, matchup kinda guy, and right now he's the 2nd best arm in their pen.
X-Factor: They're a bad team, but they seem to be building the right way, and this is the first season that the biggest blocks of that will start to show up.
Fantasy Pick: Michael Brantley. Figures to play a big role in this offense.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Jhonny Peralta. The on-again, off-again cycle is done.

WHY I HATE MARCH MADNESS

This post is unrelated to Baseball or Hockey, thereby putting it somewhat in opposition to the mission statement of this blog, but it needs saying.

After my umpteenth declaration of my disgust with the arrival of the 2010 NCAA Basketball Tournament, a friend of mine, presumably in jest, commented to me, via a social networking site, that I should write a blog article explaining why I hate it so much, so here it is, though a more apropos title may have been "Why I Hate College Basketball":

1) March hits, and all of a sudden the entire world is made of Cub fans: Cub-fan types are some of the most obnoxious people on earth. Before age 25, They tend to wear nothing but khaki cargo shorts, weather-permitting, polos or college t-shirts, and those semi-faded, floppily fitted , understated "Wrigley Field(or insert stadium name)" hats with the opening date below the name of the park, and two white bats, crossed. If the situation remotely permits, they will have a red plastic beer cup in hand. They behave as if they are audacious, dedicated sports fans, but any real sports-related argument with one of them quickly degenerates to "dude, chill", due to the lack of depth in their knowledge of sport.

2) The regular season in College Basketball is entirely meaningless: Unlike College Football, there is no regular season loss that will cripple you, faring well in your conference tournament will get you there, and hey, even if you don't do that, you still have 65 chances to be in the main tournament, anyhow. Unlike pro sports, who work with a longer playoff system, nothing you do in the regular season will gain you any sort of homefield advantage. The regular season is essentially a months-long, don't-suck-too-bad-fest, with a random hodge-podge of televised games, that gets thrown away entirely for 2-3 weeks of single elimination in March.

3) The 3-point line: There are constantly late-game exchanges of 3's, leading to huge runs and lead changes, but this is because hitting a 3, particularly against the poor quality of defense usually presented at the college level, is tantamount to hitting a long free throw, especially when basketball's equivalent of a kicker, the little college white guy that only hits 3's, and never misses, is dropped into the equation.

4) Experts?: As I said before, the regular season in College Basketball is forgettable, and only marginally covered, so how on earth are so many people expert "bracketologists"? I can't tell you how many people will break down to me who's stronger than who, who's got the quicker backcourt, who's a sleeper in waiting, that I haven't heard a mention of the sport from prior to March, unless it was in reference to how March would be good, or some passing acknowledgment of one of the 3-4 elite players in the country. It's like the guy that "only watches baseball when the playoffs start" who wants to break down every game for you, except that guy is everyone in your office/school.

5) Fans?: No one, except the occasional random who happened to attend Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Kansas or Kentucky, is a truly devoted fan of a College Basketball team. Go to an SEC or Big Ten town/state, and you will see that College Football is religion, go to the Northeast, and you will see that Baseball is a religion, or go to Canada, and select towns across America, and you will see that Hockey is a religion, but I can't think of anywhere outside of the research triangle that every other vehicle has an NCAA Basketball team's sticker on its bumper. How are people so into the games? Really, 8 college students in upstate NY care that much about Butler vs. UTEP? A group of managers in Georgia lives and dies with Sam Houston St., or Wofford? When people in an area really love their college hoops, it's generally indicative that there's a profound lack of anything going on in that area, and that speaks volumes.

6) The Tournament interferes with much more important things: Mid to late March. Usually, the first time someone says, "you fill out your bracket, bro?" there are 10-15 regular season NHL games remaining, meaning that the home stretch in a regular season that greatly affects the postseason is underway and reaching its peak. Simultaneously, Opening Day in baseball is only days away, and one can truly begin to see MLB teams take some semblance of form. The lack of Spring Training coverage in the media is directly proportionate to the abundance of bracketology. Heck, I'm more interested in the NBA stretch run than in March Madness; at least the NBA (for all of the hate it gets, based on culture, style of play, etc.) represents the highest level of basketball available. You know what that alleged poorer pace of play in the NBA, as opposed to the NCAA, is called? Defense.

7) One real rivalry: Duke-UNC is pretty much what College Hoops has to offer, it seems to come and go when it happens, and it will never happen in the tournament.

8) The crowds: watching that ridiculous, bob up and down while going, "OOOOOOOOOOOOOOO" thing is like watching a 3 year old learn the violin.

9) The Bubble: Who care who the bubble teams are? They're all going to lose in the first round or two, anyhow. Every few years, a 7/8 seed, or a wild card wins the Series/Super Bowl/Cup/Finals, but a 14-16th seed never does anything at all.

10) Dick Vitale.

11) Bill Walton is considered by many to be the greatest college player of all time.

12) Last, but not least, "Heart": The biggest alleged strength of all college sports, particularly basketball, that people point to, is the level of "heart" and motivation in the players, in contrast with the big bad millionaire pros who just couldn't care less. I say that's BS. Are we forgetting who these pros are? They were the cream of that very college crop. Plenty of people are born with athletic ability, but a very select, decimal point of a percentage of the population, actually possesses enough heart and drive to push themselves about the rest of the bunch and become professional athletes. To become a pro, with few exceptions, one must absolutely live, sleep, eat and breathe one's sport, and all of the preparation, be it psychology, training, diet, etc., that goes with it. Would anyone rather read stories from an undergraduate writing workshop over Faulkner? Does the nerdy kid in the Live Action Role Playing Club majoring in Chemistry have more "heart" than the guy who cured polio? Give me a break.

On an unrelated note, kudos to my man Sean Thornton for pounding on Matt Cooke about 0.4 seconds after he took the ice tonight.

Headshots, Playoffs, etc.

It should be taken as no surprise that ESPN, the network that all but proclaimed during the lockout that they'd just rather see the NHL wither and die, then bother to get good at covering it, gave very poor coverage to the whole headshot debacle. One day after the GMs' rule change, there read, for a few hours, a small headline, to the effect of, "NHL to ban headshots". No, that's not what happened. Of course, as of now, there is no change in effect, as the actual rule change proposed cannot go into effect until it passes the NHLPA and the Board of Governors. The proposed rule concerning headshots, chunked in with some other interesting tweaks, reads: A lateral, back pressure or blind-side hit to an opponent where the head is targeted and/or is the principal point of contact is not permitted. A violation of the above will result in a minor or major penalty and shall be reviewed for possible supplemental discipline.

I'm sorry, but that's just weak. I would usually be the last person to take this side of this debate. Generally, I'm all for as much physicality in play as possible. I love a brutal open-ice hit just as much as the next guy; I thought the Ovechkin hit on Jagr in Vancouver was tremendous. Whenever I hear complaints about fighting, I do my best to shut them down, as I believe it to be an integral tradition that should never leave the game. But in this scenario, it seems absurd that the GMs would decide to be nitpicky about what kind of headshot is OK. You shouldn't hit a player in the head, period. I don't care if the hit isn't blindside. If you target a player's head, under any circumstances, and hit it, that cannot be acceptable; there's just no good reason for any headshot. The notable exception, of course, would always be the incidental headshots: a player on an offensive rush with his head down who gets lit up, or an unintended point of contact in a hit delivered by the Charas, Regehrs, Andy Suttons and Viktor Hedmans of the world, but I don't care if the hittee to my hitting is staring at me in the face, and I shake his hand while politely informing him that I intend to bash his skull, unblinded, off of back pressure and un-laterally. If I deliver a shot to him that is a clear shot to the head, with no other intent, it needs to be a penalty. Period.

And Sean Thornton had better beat the un-suspended Matt Cooke into oblivion next week when the Pens come to Boston.

Seperately, the season seems to be taking some form at this point; we no longer have the wild Eastern Conference cluster, but there are some teams yet fighting on both sides, though it may be a tale of two races. Out East, the battle for the bottom 3 spots appears to be little more than a battle to make some cash on a playoff ticket or two. Washington and Pittsburgh are on a completely different level than the Bostons and Montreals, and the gap between 3-4 and 6-8 isn't much closer. Philadelphia, Boston and Montreal are mere opportunists, rising above a huge crop of woefully incomplete hockey clubs. The Flyers are a poor man's version of the last two teams they had, that just weren't good enough, while the Habs and Bruins just don't have that much talent. The way their goalies have been, even another player of note or two might make a considerable difference, but March 4th has come and gone, and if you stack these clubs up against the elites, depth to depth, you will arrive far too quickly into Sobotka/Hunwick/Pyatt/Darche territory. That said, I don't think the cast of characters in the postseason will look too different from the way it looks now, give or take a seeding shift (which could be big, because it would take a miracle for any of these teams to beat Pitt, Buf or NJ, but it would take an alternate universe for them to beat Washington), despite my Olympic break prediction that Tampa would emerge over Montreal. The Habs are finding points every night right now, ugly as they may be, and though every team on earth has games at hand on them, those points are adding up, and none of these 6-12 Eastern teams are good enough to reel off a considerable enough streak to make 4+ point jumps this late.

I can tell you, though, that there are at least a handful of front offices who are thanking their lucky stars that the Carolina Hurricanes decided to play Field Hockey for the first 3 months of the season.

Out West, we have something potentially more intense brewing. Theoretically, St. Louis (another probable too little, too late story) and Dallas could re-insert themselves into the conversation, but as of this moment the battle for the last 2 spots, barring an Avs collapse, is between 3 teams, and unlike the East, any of those 3 are capable of beating anyone, particularly the way they are playing. Calgary have won 4 straight, and in the meantime, Kiprusoff seems to have shaken out the Olympic semifinal jitters, and the offense is clicking. Before Kipper blanked the Sens last night, the Flames reeled off 5 goals, 5 goals and 4 goals in 3 successive wins, matching the number of 4+ goal games they had registered prior since mid-December. Why? The newly extended Stajan and Bourque seem to be truly clicking with Iggy up front, and everything else is following suit. The Wings, sitting 1 point behind Calgary and Nashville in 9th, have also come out strong, winning 4 of 6, including a thriller in Chicago on NBC last Sunday. They appear slower and older, save their netminder, and are still only scoring at a Bruin-esque pace, but they are still defending Conference champs, and they still can throw Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom, Rafalski, and now, most notably, a finally returning Johan Franzen at you every night. On an interesting note, Boomer Gordon pointed out on NHL Home Ice yesterday that while the Wings are in the high 20's in terms of team scoring, they are 3rd in the NHL in shots on goal, and that opposing goalies have a save %, collectively of about .925 against them. I'm not sure if this is encouraging or discouraging for them. Either way, both of Calgary and Detroit appear to be more fierce than Nashville, who can't find their scoring stroke, remain uncommitted to Pekka Rinne or Dan Ellis in net, and most of all seem to be headed in the wrong direction. Not long before the break, Nashville had gone on a nice run, and wedged their way right in there with the LA-COL-PHO bunch in the middle of the playoff pack, and they have now fallen down to the edge, battling two talented teams with an awful lot of momentum.

All in all, and I may be biased here, mind you, the Flames look to be the best of the bunch, with their mini-streak as the case in point: Win 1, they they beat a very good New Jersey team, Kipper's first ever win against the Devils, amidst a mini-media frenzy surrounding Brent Suter facing his old club. Win 2, they beat up, 5-2 on a Wild team trying to get into the playoff picture that had embarrassed them less than a week prior. Win 3, they beat a hot Red Wings team, in 3rd period comeback fashion to leapfrog the Wings into a playoff spot. Win 4, they blank a very talented Ottawa team All the while, Iginla just may be on one of those runs. If I'm Chicago, San Jose, etc., I don't particularly want to see any of these teams, but I really don't want to see Calgary with both Kiprusoff and Iginla streaking.

On a non-playoff note, if there was any question in anyone's mind about the quality of player that Steven Stamkos could become, there is not now. For weeks now he has actually been better in terms of production than either Crosby or Ovechkin, riding an 18-game point streak that has him only 2 goals behind the aforementioned duo for the Richard Trophy. Look out for Tampa next year, because they have Stamkos, they have some other resources, and their new owner appears to be serious.

As an aside, I will be playing in net tomorrow in a charity 4-on-4 tournament in Saugerties, NY benefiting an organization called Coaches vs. Cancer, which, oddly enough, appears to be usually a basketball-centric charity, but they are sponsoring this hockey event. I encourage anyone to check them out and donate, or if you happen to live anywhere around here, come check the tourney out, all day Saturday, March 13th, at Kiwanis Ice Arena, with food all day for the cost of a donation.

MLB SEASON PREVIEW INSTALLMENT 2: NL WEST

More western parity. Aside from the Padres, everyone is in this, but no one good enough to run away, and in theory, they may be bad enough to let the Padres sneak in. The Giants and Dodgers could have perhaps raised themselves to a higher level with a few key signings that they didn't make in the winter, but instead remain incomplete, having left the door open for the young guns in Denver.

1. Colorado Rockies:
2009 Record : 92-70
2010 Over/Under Wins: 84.5
My Projected Record: 93-69
Lineup: Carlos Gonzalez's 2009 line of .284(.314 in his last 52), 13 HR and 16 SB came in just over half a season of work, and he peaked near the end. He is an absolutely complete player, to compliment the superstar playing short, and never once looked over his head. Of the 8 men in their slated everyday lineup, 5 of them should hit 20 home runs, and the other 3 are their catcher, Iannetta, who still has pop, for a catcher, and may have some upside left in him, Dexter Fowler, who is a fine outfielder and should steal a pile of bagsif he can get on base more often, and Todd Helton, whose bat has remained productive despite the latter years power drop, though he may be the weakest link here. This Colorado lineup is well-rounded and super young, much more the type that can be sustained and built upon than 2007's surprise series team, and should 2 of Stewart, Barmes, Iannetta , Fowler or Hawpe really find their way, this could be an elite lineup that is even better defensively than the Colorado unit in 2007 that put up the best team fielding percentage in MLB history.
Rotation: The Rockies staff should be good enough to support them Ubaldo Jimenez is a stud, a 200-K type, low 3 ERA pitcher, and the rest of the gang can pitch innings and, most importantly, get an awful lot of ground ball outs, a cherished trait when you're a mile high. The wild card is Jeff Francis, who appeared 2 years ago to be headed towards ace-hood, only to have a stinker of an '08 campaign until major injuries derailed him. If he returns, and is effective, this could be a very good staff.
Bullpen: Huston Street surprised last year as one of the most dependable 9th inning men around, and he has help with Betancourt, Corpas and a heap of other names behind him, which is how good bullpens happen: strength in numbers.
The X-factor: Keep momentum going. They need to avoid an '08-esque flop.
Fantasy Pick: Carlos Gonzalez=Matt Kemp
Fantasy Un-Pick: Todd Helton. Stick a fork in him.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers:
2009 Record: 95-67
2010 Over/Under Wins: 85
My Projected Record: 90-72
Lineup: The Dodgers have a great lineup, this much is clear. Ethier, Kemp, Manny can be a brutal 2-3-4, and everyone else can hit and get on base. The biggest dissapointment, probably, over the last couple of years has been James Loney's simply average production, but he's still a young player, and for what it's worth, I hear he thinks this is the year, but who doesn't say that? 2nd base may be an issue, as I can't envision Ronnie Belliard lighting the world on fire, or Blake DeWitt doing anything at all, but the rest of the lineup is solid enough that this should not matter. Defensively they could be more mobile, but they're not weak.
Rotation: Kershaw and Billingsley are supposed to be #1 material, and they are that, but they will really need to do it this year. After them, the LA staff is uninspiring, old and injury-prone, and it seems like every Dodger fan is fuming over their lack of any SP signing, understandably so. If Kershaw and Billingsley really put it all together, than the Kuroda-Padilla-Stults-whoever else bandwagon should fare well enough, but none of them can be depended on.
Bullpen: Probably their most complete element. Fireballer Broxton is among the best, and he's got a former closer as his lefty setup man in George Sherrill, and some excellent arms in Troncoso and Belisario behind him.
X-Factor: The McCourt divorce debacle. There's been a lot of discussion about it, and it certainly seems to have affected their spending, but I'm not as sure as everyone else is that it will have anything to do with the on-field product.
Fantasy Pick: Matt Kemp. It's not a wild pick, but the Beltran comparisons are on point, and this should be his entry into Beltran's '03-06 years.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Rafael Furcal. Appears to be in decline, and speed tends to go sooner than later, which is his most marketable commodity.

3. San Francisco Giants:
2009 Record: 88-74
2010 Over/Under Wins: 82.5
My Projected Record: 81-81
Lineup: Ha. Sandoval's pretty good. There's not another man in this lineup who truly deserves to be a major league regular at his position. Next.
Rotation: The bread and butter. Back-to-back Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum is the best of the best right now, and Matt Cain isn't far off of that pace. Zito seemed to comeback a bit last year, and Jonathan Sanchez may be headed for good things, himself. It's just an awesome rotation, but it's wasted. In the NHL, these Giants might win, if SP's are the answer to goalies, but you can't trap in baseball.
Bullpen: Brian Wilson, despite his fohawk, and that demented gesture that he makes, is a very good closer, pitching in front of solid arms with different looks, only furthering the strength of their pitching attack.
X-Factor: They need steroids.
Fantasy Pick: Barry Zito can be had for very cheap, particularly as he is ignored behind Lincecum and Cain, and finished '09 strongly. I like him as a numbers-getter at the back end of a fantasy staff.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Buster Posey. What has he done? He may start the year in the minors.

4. Arizona Diamondbacks:
2009 Record: 70-92
2010 Over/Under Wins: 82.5
My Projected Record: 80-82
Lineup: I had forgotten that Conor Jackson's season-spoiling injury last year was something called "Valley Fever". Jeez. Mark Reynolds blew up last year, as did Justin Upton, and the addition of Adam LaRoche should give the DBacks more pop than they've had. In other spots, there are mixed results: Kelly Johnson and Stephen Drew both appear to be replacement level players, while Chris Young and Conor Jackson could be better than that or worse than that, and my guess is worse, on both counts, particularly Jackson. Miguel Montero is a great value behind the plate, and figures to improve.
Rotation: AZ made well for themselves in the Edwin Jackson deal, and his presence, plus a return from Webb should make this rotation a very good one behind ace Dan Haren, though 4 and 5 is an odd contest between ex-prospects from other places. Webb's ability to rebound from injury is the make or break, obviously.
Bullpen: Not great, and yes, I still love Aaron Heilman. From the closer on down to the long relief, their pen is a collection of so-so middle relief.
X-Factor: They're better, this much is certain, but are they that much better that they can contend, coming off of a 70-win year? Adam LaRoche and Edwin Jackson alone are not enough for that. Webb will have to be CY Young Webb.
Fantasy Pick: Miguel Montero. I always like value at catcher, and here's some.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Stephen Drew. He's been the darling of certain managers for a while now. Let them have him.

5. San Diego Padres:
2009 Record: 75-87
2010 Wins Over/Under: 71
My Projected Record: 67-95
Lineup: Not much better than the other San. Adrian Gonzalez is obviously the shining star, but he very well could be gone by season's end, and he's most of the show. Kyle Blanks is raw and undeveloped, but could smack some bombs. I'm not sold on Chase Headley, who is where he belongs at 3B and is in a statement year. The rest of the lineup is soft, period, and I don't care how many foul balls David Eckstein hits.
Rotation: Weird. Headed up by Kevin Correia, who has the perfect name for a Padre pitcher (I don't know why, it just fits) and Jon Garland and rounded out by one-time phenom turned bust Chris Young and some interesting younger arms in Latos (more interesting) and Clayton Richard (less so, though no one who dons a Padres uni is ever that interesting, anyways)
Bullpen: Heath Bell is great, but I always believe that an elite closer is a luxury that a rebuilding team has no business having.
X-Factor: The only story coming out of SD this year will be whether or not A-Gon gets dealt. In my eyes, it's the right time to move him, because they're just not close enough to being able to use his prime well. Both sides need it. Otherwise, the most boring club on earth will sputter on.
Fantasy Pick: Kyle Blanks. Going undrafted a lot, should hit for decent power.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Kevin Correia. being drafted ahead of some quality pitchers, simply for the Petco factor. He won't carry anyone's staff.

MLB SEASON PREVIEW INSTALLMENT 1: AL WEST

This is the first of 6 installments in which I will successfully prognosticate exactly what is coming in 7 months during which baseball is to be played in 2010.

I encourage any of my readers/friends to comment on my thoughts with their thoughts.

As a fan of the Mets and Red Sox, I wan to finish these off with the AL and NL East Divisions, everyone's favorite divisions to love or hate, and so I will begin out west.

1. Texas Rangers:
2009 record: 87-75
2010 Over/Under wins: 83.5
My projected record: 89-73
'Cuz Nolan said so. In all seriousness, this team has jumped from 75 wins in '07, to 79 in '08, up to 87 in '09. The biggest difference has been the beginnings of a makeover of the oft-maligned pitching culture in Texas. Mike Maddux has clearly made a difference down there, and their staff, while not the stuff of legends, is very deep and promising to get better with the addition of Rich Harden and the maturation of everyone else. Assuming Feldman, McCarthy, Hunter, Feliz and whoever else may find their way into the rotation remains at least where they were a year ago, the staff should get them consistently to what has become a very sturdy 'pen. I'd like to thank Omar Minaya for his excellent scouting on Darren O'Day...
The lineup will remain the Texas lineup, and maybe get a little better, based on Michael Young's resurgence since moving to 3rd, and a hunch I have on Josh Hamilton, assuming this year remains drama-free for him. To me, the progression of a good baseball team is apparent here, and this team pitches 9 innings, fields well, and crushes the ball. I expect these teams to beat on one another all year, and these guys to come out on top.
Fantasy Pick: Josh Hamilton, because he's always got comebacks in him.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Julio Borbon, because the Rangers aren't even sold on him, while youth-thirsty owners and drafters are.

2. Seattle Mariners:
2009 Record: 85-77
2010 Over/Under Wins: 82.5
My projected record: 86-76
Their 1-2 punch is as good as any, and that should account for about 35 or so of those wins, if not more. Their successful pursuit of Cliff Lee, without losing an awful lot, has certainly rocketed them back into the stratosphere of major league relevance. Why won't they win the division? Because Figgins is a nice addition to the lineup, but his style of play and skillset does not add anything momentous to it. They needed a power bat, badly, and if Milton Bradley's career has shown me anything, it is that he will not rebound in Seattle. If he counts as a big power addition, then based on last year, Daniel Murphy is a power bat. They can win the West if I'm wrong about Bradley, and if Erik Bedard is effective and healthy if and when he returns to the rotation, because if that happened, they'd have a 1-2-3 punch like no other. I've never liked the Mariners, but based on the way things just always were when I was growing up, there's something comforting about them not being terrible anymore.
Fantasy Pick: Franklin Gutierrez. I thought he was going into this year's draft as a sleeper with a lot of hype, but based on the drafts I've been in to this point, people aren't buying it yet. He's a good player, who will have a few very nice tablesetters ahead of him in the lineup in Ichiro, Figgins and Lopez.
Fantasy Un-Pick: David Aardsma. There's been a rotating closer door in Seattle for a while, even when someone has appeared to step up and claim the role. Aardsma spent a lot of time in his career as a mediocre reliever.

3. Los Angeles Angels:
2009 Record: 97-65
2010 Over/Under Wins: 85
My projected record: 86-76
The Angels may not have gotten that much worse, though the loss of Figgins is noticeable and Lackey for Pineiro sans Dave Duncan is a huge dropoff. More than their dropoff, though, which should be minimized by a staff that is still deep and some very nice developing bats, is that while they have gotten a little worse, their competition has gotten a lot better, collectively. Not since the A's were still a force have the Angels had to play anyone on a regular basis, save the rare visit from a jet-lagged east coast powerhouse. I won't say that they can't win this, but I don't see it as likely. The interesting things to watch will be how Morales and Rivera build on monstrous years in '09, and more interesting, and perhaps more important to their success than anything else, will be how goes the put-up or shut-up campaign for perpetual uber-prospect Brandon Wood, the third of the Morales-Kendrick-Wood triumvirate.
Fantasy Pick: Kendry Morales. Figures to join the ranks of elite 1B after a gigantic '09 that did not look flukish, and shouldn't have been if the scouting was right.
Fantasy Un-Pick: Juan Rivera, because he's getting older, can get hurt, and seems to have an on-again off-again pattern.

Oakland Athletics:
2009 Record: 75-87
2010 Over/Under Wins: 78.5
My projected record: 75-87
Why should they get better? This is a club that did nothing well last year, and more than anything, I can't decipher what the overall plan is here, and my guess is that if their front office had a little less star power in it, some people would have been fired. I get that the Sheets signing was all about low-risk, high-reward, but to what end? Presumably, to trade him, but that just feels like more treading water. There are too many A's that are below replacement level players, and not a lot of A's with real potential. If Sheets is good, and there is some progress elsewhere on the squad, particularly with some of the young pitching, and Duscherer's return, they may very well get a little better, but not at the rate of the rest of the division, and that will keep them right where they started.
Fantasy Pick: Jake Fox. If they give him the job at 1B, he will out-hit this whole team.
Fantasy Un-pick: Jack Cust. Barf.

DEADLINE CHAOS

I don't like french fries very much. It's not that I actively, or aggressively DISlike french fries, it's that they just don't do an awful lot for me. As a result, I find that whenever I'm forced to eat french fries, when there just isn't anything else around, I eat an absurd amount of them, perhaps trying to compensate for my lack of enjoyment by loading on quantity, and always feeling roughly satiated when all is said and done, though perhaps not truly satisfied.

In what may have been the stupidest analogy ever, I have just illustrated how I feel, and how many seem to feel about this year's NHL trade deadline. There's something stimulating about knowing that it was the busiest, in terms of volume of players swapped, in NHL history, but the Leafs, Flames, Devils and Thrashers kind of ruined the potential for any earth-shattering, smack me across the face deals on deadline day today. Honestly, I probably couldn't sputter out even a third of today's/last night's deals off the cuff, which is why The Hockey News, and other sources have been kind enough to give us a full list, including many trades that I know I won't remember. Case in point, the Leafs acquire Chris Peluso from Pittsburgh for a 6th rounder.

I don't need to tell you what the biggest deals were, but I will break down who I feel won big today/in this bizarre, olympically extended trading season.

WINNERS
1. Phoenix Coyotes: For the 'Yotes, this is another step in what has become the NHL's feel-good story of the year, and another major sign that the NHL (who currently own the Phoenix franchise) means business in terms of making things work in the desert. For starters, they acquire a budding Wojtek Wolski (who happened to score the first NHL goal that I watched this season), a 24 yr-old who is hovering near 50 points, for Peter Mueller, who has not done anything if not underachieved, though he stills shows potential at only 21 years of age. Mueller may fit into an overall scheme in Colorado, but to me, the 30-point discrepancy between the two makes this robbery for Phoenix. Also up front, they pick up Lee Stempniak, another young-ish player, and a useful, 30-point winger from the Leafs, whose -10 doesn't look so bad when you frame it in blue and white. To round the day up, they 'Yotes brought in veteran Mathieu Schneider from Vancouver and bruiser Derek Morris for the Bruins, a player I've watched enough of to say that he's not an afterthought. Of the surprise teams this season, of which there are many, the Coyotes may have pulled themselves above the fray, and onto a level that can bring them into some very meaningful games this Spring.

2. Pittsburgh Penguins: They did it again. Ray Shero seems to bring this teams what it needs nearly automatically at this time of year. Jordan Leopold is a fine addition to the blue line, acquired at what has been now determined as the going rate for a 4th-5th D-Man, and Ponikarovsky adds that winger we've heard so much about, at a very reasonable price. A very good team rounds itself off.

3. New Jersey Devils: Ilya Kovalchuk is far too good to not make that deal look great by season's end.

4. Buffalo Sabres: Raffi Torres>Clarke MacArthur, at least right now, and of the long line of truly contending teams whose major defect has been a lack of scoring, this is the only one that delivered today.

5. Toronto Maple Leafs: Brian Burke has certainly made an awful lot of noise, and while some names that many expected to see on their way out, most notably Kaberle, are still floating around, many are not, and more importantly, there is star power AND cap space in Toronto. Harkening back to the Kessel trade would be unfair here; it was not a deadline deal, and Burke didn't know he might be risking Taylor Hall. In terms of their big early deals, adding Phaneuf brings a legitimacy and a name to the a Leafs Nation in need of both, and as far as Giguere goes, it's essentially a win-win: if they do commit to Gustavsson, J-S should serve as a good spell/mentor for him, and if they don't they now have insurance. Otherwise, they unloaded contracts, and perhaps more significantly they cleaned house on a team that has nosedived, and they stockpiled a bunch of picks.

LOSERS
1. Chicago Blackhawks: Anyone who has watched the Hawks regularly, or even just watched them last night realizes that right now, no one in Chicago is playing like a Stanley Cup netminder. The fanbase has been clamoring for something, and this appeared to be a buyer's market for goalies, yet the Hawks, at the early peak of their best window in a long time to break their cupless spell, will proceed with Cristobal Huet and Antti Niemi. This failure to upgrade alone puts them on top of a lot of people's losers list.

2. Boston Bruins: Peter Chiarelli all but guaranteed some major moves at the deadline for a Bruins team very much in need of a testoterone shot. Tuukka Rask has been very good, and they did piece together a 4-game win streak going into the break, but it's clear that this team, which gathered the most points in the East a year ago, is severely missing Phil Kessel, as they are currently the at the bottom of the team scoring statistic in the NHL. Especially with Patrice Bergeron, and every other decent forward on this squad, in iffy health states, they flat out needed to acquire a scorer, and instead, they casted off an OK D-man for a slightly better D-man.

3. Colorado Avalanche: I just don't like the Wolski deal for them one bit. Mueller has some potential, but he also has alot of fizzle out completely potential, and for a team that has generated some excitement with a Cinderella season, making a cap-cutting move and nothing else for the stretch run is underwhelming.

4. Montreal Canadiens: They did nothing, and yes, I'm counting the Moore/D'agostini deals as such, and right now, that's not good enough to make them a playoff team. The reason they make this list is because not trading Carey Price or Jaroslav Halak seems just criminal.

5. Philadelphia Flyers: Think of their deadline as a milder combo of Chicago's and Boston's put together; Emery is done for the year, and probably for good in Philly, and it was all but a foregone conclusion that they would bring someone in to replace him. He was, after all, one of their two major statement acquisitions in the summer. Like Boston, they are a team a year removed from being major contenders, yet to find a great flow this season, and no punch to help that along is no good.

Highlights of the night? At 7, the powerhouse matchup is Buffalo-Washington, while at 10 the Flames will try to right their ship, now looking in from the outside at the Western bracket, against a Minnesota team trying to re-insert itself into the discussion. I assume none of the newly dealt players will suit up tonight, though you never know.

On a totally unrelated note, as Alex Burrows continues to rack up points for my fantasy team, I begin to wonder if the Sedins have begun to call "bank" before he scores goals?

TOP 10 THINGS TO WATCH, NHL SECOND HALF

And just like that, my Olympic days was over.

NHL is underway tonight, with Gold Medal coach Mike Babcock behing the bench in Colorado for Wings-Avs, the only game tonight. There are 12 games tomorrow. Yummy. To get back in the NHL spirit, I'm giving my two cents on the what I feel are the 10 biggest stories for the 2nd half. OK, it's more like the 4th quarter, but there was a big break in between, so it feels like a second half.

10. Spilling Oil, Falling Leafs: Between now and 3pm, the Leafs and Oilers may look quite different. Obviously, the Leafs have gotten that ball rolling, already, in a big way, with the Phaneuf and Giguere acquisitions, but there are major rumblings surrounding both Ponikarovsky and Kaberle, and who knows who else. In Edmonton, the home of bad contracts, the shipping away of Denis Grebeshkov is being seen as a harbinger of a fire sale. Everyone you've heard of that plays in Edmonton seems to be on the block. My picks? Ponikarovksy is gone in Toronto, as are Staios and Pisani in Edmonton.

9. Calder, anyone?: Much was made of the Islanders selection of John Tavares 1st overall in last year's draft, and the fudging over whether to take him, Matt Duchene or Viktor Hedman. I believe they made the right pick, and despite Johnny T's recent struggles, he has been very good at times this year, and will be a great player. That said, barring a huge push, he won't win the Calder. It has to be between Tyler Myers, Matt Duchene, Jimmy Howard and now, Tuukka Rask. Don;'t look now, but Rask leads all rookies in GAA, SV% and Shutouts, while trailing only Howard in Wins. He also leads the NHL in GAA right now, albeit in somewhat limited starts. Duchene has been a huge scorer, and a major part of Colorado's unlikely push, Myers has provided an unlikely spark in Buffalo, and Howard has been terrific in bringing Detroit back into the race, but boy, the last time I saw Tuukka live, a few weeks back in Montreal, he appeared to be on another level. Let's not forget that he stole the job in Boston from last year's Vezina winner. Thr Bruins appear poised to make a late surge, and I predict he leads it and wins the Calder.

8. Kovy and the Rock: The Kovalchuk-Devils deal was Butch Goring-esque in its shakeup of the league, but has had mixed results through the first few games. Will Kovalchuk be able to prosper as the one-man scoring machine that he is in a Lamoriello system? Can he bring them, and Marty, to the promised land, one last time, and most of all, does he stay in NJ, or even in the NHL? My prediction, Kovy does just fine in Jersey, and they have a late playoff run, falling short of a cup win. After that, the KHL looks more and more likely every day, but I just can't see it. Despite his rep, Kovalchuk cares too much to bail on the best league in the world. Don't count on him staying in Jersey, however.

7. Bounceback Springs for Dissapointments?: The Bruins, Flyers, Flames and Red Wings all came into this season as legitimate cup contenders in the eyes of most, and had been just that in '08-'09, and all have stumbled, at times mightily. The Wings have been horrifically injured, and have gone from juggernaut to on the outside looking in, though a win in Colorado would leapfrog the Flames for 8th, the Bruins had some injury problems of their own, plus a 10-game winless streak, their longest in 13 years, the Flyers came out of the gate terribly, even firing the homegrown coach that brought them to the conference finals a year ago, and the Flames have been so inconsistent, particularly in terms of scoring, that they have traded 2 of their franchise players (if you want to call Jokinen that) in order to shake it up. On the flipside, none of them have played themselves out of it, particularly the eastern teams in question, certainly more due to the quality of conference than to anything else. The Flyers have been on a roll since shortly after LaViolette took over, and the Bruins have won 4 straight since the 10-game slide, putting them at 6 and 7 respectively in the awfully tight East. To me, they're both shoo-ins, and could even climb the ladder more as we move along; Philly has really bought into their new coach's style, and they have a world of talent, and Boston has a lot of buzz to play with with Tuukka Rask, and some reinforcements finally healthy. Out West, I think one of Calgary and Detroit will finish above 8th, and one below, and to me it comes down to how the Flames trades pan out, and whether there are more to come. Apparently, Iggy likes Stajan, as the Calgary brass just inked him to a 4-yr deal, so perhaps that is a good omen for the Flames.

6. Cinderella x3: 4, 5, and 6 out West are, in order, Phoenix, Los Angeles and Colorado. LA was picked by many to be just out of the playoffs, and by many to be a 8-seed kind of team, while Phoenix and Colorado were almost universally picked as the last 2, in either order, in the conference. This would be a bigger story, and higher on my list, if any one of these teams had showed any sign of let-up, but they just haven't. They will all be there in April. Who gets the farthest? I'll say Phoenix, because they may have the biggest chip on their shoulders, and Bryzgalov has been that good.

5. The Little Conference That Couldn't: Out East, there are 5 points separating the #6 team from the #11 team, mostly because no one has played well enough to create any distance. It should be awfully entertaining, watching these teams duke it out, but in the end, my guess is that the only change is Montreal out and Tampa in. Why? Because Atlanta may be deflated after the Kovy deal, and a potential Kozlov deal; the Rangers still can't score, Lundqvist will only get more fatigued, and they come out of the break with a brutal stretch of games: @OTT, Home Vs. PIT, @ WAS, Home vs. BUF, @NJ, @ ATL, Home vs. PHI. I say they're cooked in a couple of weeks; Montreal is just not deep enough, and everyone's got games at hand on them; Tampa has only up to look. Vinny LeCavalier appears to be somewhat on a bounceback, St. Louis has been very tough, and Stamkos is on the precipice of superstardom. There is more excitement on this team than any of the others hovering between 8-11.

4. The Hart: Ovy and Sid are of course right there, but Henrik Sedin, Marian Gaborik and a handful of goalies, including our own Ryan Miller promise to make it a dark-horse friendly race. I've got Ovy coming out on top, furious in the wake of the Olympics.

3. The Caps: Right now, no one in the East is in Washington's stratosphere, with the 2nd place Devils back by 13 points. The Caps are 7-1-2 in their last 10, and that is not abnormal for them. Their scoring attack is one unseen since the days of the Oilers, and as mentioned above, you've got to believe that Ovechkin wants to prove something badly. The only hurdle, like everyone will point out, is goaltending, but Varlamov should be ready to go, and the netminding has obviously been good enough. They're dangerous as all get-out. Oh, and Obama needs to attend a Caps game, for Pete's sake, all politics aside.

2. The Hawks and Sharks: On one hand, you have the wild excitement of the young fast, complete Hawks, seemingly destined to bring Hockey's answer to the Cubs their long sought after Cup, and on the other hand, you have the perennial contenders, but perennial early departers in San Jose. There was talk that teh Olympics could be good for the Sharks, with almost every major player from San Jose being given a major Olympic role, but the results were mixed. Yes, the 3 forwards walk away with gold, but it's tough to say that Heatley, or particularly Thornton, the lightning rod himself, had much to do with it, and we all know how Nabokov went out, with him and his team mutually agreeing to hang one another out to dry. My guess is the Sharks get past the first round this time, but the Hawks get further. I believe they will trade for a goalie tomorrow, and that their team is too deep, up front and on the blue line, to be outmatched in a long series, at least early.

1. The Rocket: This may be somewhat redundant, going back to the Hart race, but the contest for the Rocket Richard Trophy this year is something extra special, as it has come down to our two modern day living legends, deadlocked at 42 as the Olympic break unwinds, the exact number of goals scored by the Rocket himself in 1951, when he fell short to Gordie Howe by a mere goal in what may have been the greatest race ever for that title. Ovechkin and Crosby, as sick as I get of both at times (and I think that NBC, VS, etc. severely miscalculate at times when they assume that the best way to get maximum viewership is to over-saturate us with those two as much as possible, but that's another point), are the game's two idols, and they may give us a race to mirror one of those fantastic races of old that we get to hear about. Verdict? Ovie takes it, look at the goals per game.

THE BEAUTIFUL GAME

Throw the puck at the net.

Because you may get a bounce, or it may just go in.

It would be difficult to convince me that a more beautiful, more complete game of hockey has ever been played, though the way it ended was as devastating in weight as the game itself was important.

Canada invented hockey. The National in NHL refers to the Nation of Canada. They gave us Taylor, Patrick, Orr, Lemieux and Gretzky. We may have 10 times their population, but they watched this game today in as many numbers as we did.

An upstart league in Vancouver, early in the century, for a moment took over the hockey scene, and in so doing revolutionized the game. Cyclone Taylor, or Canada's Ruth, played there, and the Patrick brothers implemented a slew of rule changes, first put into play in Vancouver, that define the sport, including artificial ice, the forward pass, the blue line, and the playoffs.

The US is the obvious natural rival of "the true north strong and free". We are more audacious, we are more powerful in all things not frozen, and we are next door. We also house 24 of the NHL's now 30 teams, and have brought the game some of its greatest moments. In a bizarre, carnival-like league formed in no-mans-land, Houghton, Michigan, the first professional team ever, the Houghton-Portage Lakes, were formed, in the first ever proper hockey arena. Our list of players is far less glitzy. We offer Modano, Roenick, LeClair, Leetch, Chelios and LaFontaine to their Orrs and Gretzkys.

And today, where they offered Crosby, Iginla, Nash, Thornton, Niedermayer, Luongo, Brodeur and Weber, we offered Kesler, Kessel, Kane, Backes, Johnson, Johnson and Miller, and like hell, we played with them for more than 60 minutes.

We could no longer skate under the radar, as was the mantra of Wilson and Burke. That ship sailed around goal #6 vs. Finland. The microscope was on ice, and so was the pressure. And no, we, as Americans, didn't get another gold, but I would dare to say we saw some miracles on ice.

There was a comeback, there were ups and downs, goals, graceful moves, powerful hits, beautiful saves, there was overtime, and there was unprecedented hustle, all from millionaires who were playing for free.

As the second period kicked into gear, the USA was struggling to chip back and forth with the Canadian squad, and then we got a break, a power play. We proceeded to not even take the zone effectively once, and swiftly yield a second goal to them as our failed PP expired. We looked beat, and they looked too good.

And then we fought our way back into it. We threw the puck at the net, like they always say to do, again, and again, and again, and with 24.4 to go, our masked, blockered and gloved hero on the other end now helplessly watching from the bench, we threw the puck into the net, and we had new life. Fans of the Rangers, Islanders, Flyers and Penguins went nuts for a New Jersey Devil, and people who couldn't tell you a Sedin from a Manning hooted and hollered. We stole the moment, we had our mini-miracle, all set-up.

And then? the best player in the world, in the eyes of many, playing for the home and native land of the sport that made him, threw the puck at the net, and he scored.

We watched, objectively, the perfect game, and it is far better to have loved and lost, then never to have loved at all.

Hockey gained some converts today, I know it, and every American kid old enough to follow a puck now wants in, ready to gear up and take their revenge in 20whenever, and for that, it is a victory for our country for a sport I love.

Congratulations, Canada, now don't look back.

THE WAITING

I support two NHL teams, fully, as a "fan", the New York Islanders and the Boston Bruins. For a 25 year old, neither franchise is a particularly joyous fit. In New York, those who pull for the Isles are few and far between, and they tend to be older, reverting in conversation to the glory days in the 80's. For the Bruins, fans are plenty, but cups are not. Still, the folks in Boston remember the days of Orr and Co. as fondly as anything; even my mother, who does not watch sports, to begin with, let alone hockey, as marginalized as it is nowadays, remembers the reverence for #4 when she was growing up in Cambridge. Born in 1985, I, like many others who were just born too late, am tortured by what I missed.

There are other examples that fit in my life: the '86 Mets, Larry Bird in his heyday, Parcells' Giants (I was 5), the '75 Red Sox, the '69 Mets, even the Brooklyn Dodgers, but bigger than any of these memories that I'm just not lucky enough to have, by leaps and bounds, however, bigger than Orr's Big Bad Bruins, Potvin-Gillies-Smith-Trottier, or a ball rolling by Buckner, and perhaps more referenced than any sporting event, period, in this country, is the Miracle on Ice. Yes, it's a wonderful, magical thing that we were able to do what we did, as a hockey nation, when we did it, and yes, I enjoy all the interviews, documentaries, Disney movies, etc., but boy does it drive me nuts that I wasn't around for it!

I understand that there will never be another 1980; nothing could even sniff 1980. I understand that the Cold War is over, and that there is no iron curtain standing between Plattsburgh and Montreal, or Winnipeg and Fargo, but for our time, for our generation, this is about as close as we can get.

This Canadian team, as good as Tretiak, Mikhailov, etc., were, is a collection of essentially half of the the best 50 players on earth, playing at home. They are a beast as beastly as any to lace up skates, and we, though also completely composed of NHL'ers, are not that way. Team USA, a collection of a few stars, some nice role players, and a great goalie, was picked by most experts to come in somewhere between 3rd, if they got lucky, and 7th. Instead, we sit on the edge of a gold medal game, against that same aforementioned northern nation, ever haughty in their view of our brand of their game, and we look like we belong here; there has been no luck.

Let us not forget, too, that while there is no Cold War, and Canada is about as much our political enemy as is Bermuda, there is a major crisis in our country. The combined approval ratings of the last two presidents is at the Ford/Carter level, the economy, jobs and all, finds itself in an eerily similar spot to 1980, there is a war on terror still going, troops scattered, in harm's way, all over the globe, and from Town Halls to Capitol Hills, we are at one other's throats. In essence, the stakes are not the same, but boy, could we use a feel-good, unifying story, and win or lose, I think we've had it.

Here's to taking it one more step, and giving us post-boomers, and on, our own little Miracle.

THE UNLIKELY OLYMPICS

For two days, I've heard analysis and predictions of, and myself the impending goaltending duel that would ensue between the US and Finland today. Miller has been dazzling all the way through, of course, and Kiprusoff is an elite goalie, coming off a shutdown of the Czechs, with a track record of performing well under pressure. See, 1 Vezina in 2006 and 5 shutouts in one year of playoffs en route to just falling short of a cup in 2004. Everyone talked about how out of the European bunch, the Finns played the most "North American" brand of hockey, therefore better suiting them to challenge the red-hot yanks, and play on the NHL-sized rinks. I heard how essentially, these two teams were mirror images of each other, and that it would come down to relentless execution, and/or luck, in a low-scoring slugfest. Relentless execution? Yes. What it was was an onslaught, almost entirely devoid of any physical play, Kiprusoff looking like a new call-up from Pee-Wee in Bantam, the Finns looking like Latvia, Teemu Selanne not a factor. Maybe if Kiprusoff gets some more help when he comes out to play that fateful first puck that found its way into the loving arms of Ryan Malone's stick, or if he does not play it at all, we do get that game we imagined, but from that moment on, the US executed brilliantly and brutally. Now, their belonging here cannot be questioned; they dominated Torino's runners-up, an undisputed major player in the world. By the by, nice to see you, Patrick Kane, you came just in time.

The way Finland-USA turned out was just the latest in a long string of contradictory outcomes in Men's Hockey in Vancouver:
Martin Brodeur, the record-holder of all record-holders, was mediocre at best.
Russia-Canada was not close, and barely interesting, and Sid v. Ovie was not a storyline.
Jonas Hiller may be, when all is said and done, the most notable performer of this tournament, once you consider how the US has played everyone else.
Teemu Selanne, the all-time leading Olympic scorer, had a mere 2 assists, and no goals.
Miikka Kiprusoff not only failed to carry Finland, but he brought them down.
Chris Drury has played like a champion.
The Slovaks beat Russia in group play, then they went ahead and knocked out a Swedish team that hadn't shown weakness since they had arrived.
Russia never showed up.
Brian Rafalski leads the Olympics in points.
Someone named Tore Vikingstad is second in goals, with 4. That's 2 more than Alexander Ovechkin.
We beat Canada.
We're going to play for Gold on Sunday.

Perhaps the only two foregone conclusions that have stayed true have been that Joe Thornton would not be a factor when it counted, and that at some point, whether there were hiccups on the way, Team Canada would blossom into the juggernaut that it is. Right now, they lead Slovakia, 2-0, and are soundly outplaying them. It's obviously too close to call anything, but I would guess we have a rematch, a northern mirror image of the Salt Lake final in '02.

Generally, especially as a hockey fan, I really like Canada, and Canadians. I even kinda root for a Canadian team, and I entered this tournament assuming that, provided they were not facing the US or Russia (my wife's home), I would be pulling for them, knowing how much this must mean to them as hosts, but boy, has that changed. Maybe it was the intensity of USA-Canada, rd. 1, maybe it was the way the Canuck fans have proceeded to boo us like hell in every other game, even cheering like they were watching their own children for the Swiss the other day, or maybe it was the way Ryan Getzlaf's mooky mug hollered into Malkin's ear at the end of the blowout on Wednesday. At any rate, I want them to go down, hard, and how sweet it will be if we can avenge the Salt Lake loss on their turf.

Edit: Yeah, so the Slovaks made it close, awful close. For Pavol Demitra's sake, I hope he can forget the one that got away.

A COMMENTER OFF OF TSN

Pretty much summed up Calgary's 6-yr deal with Rene Bourque today:
"Rene Borque, 6 years at $3.3 million. Shawn Horcoff, 6 years at $5.5 million. How in the world did the second one happen?"

In other non-olympic news, the Wild signed Cal Clutterbuck, who has a excellent name, to a 3-yr extension today. I actually hadn't been aware of the fact that he set the NHL single-season hits record last year. Impressive, and quite understandable that he is a very popular dude in Minny. At 22, he seems to be enhancing his intimidation game with a nice dash of scoring; it appears that the Wild are headed in a positive direction overall, despite looking very rough after losing Gaborik this summer.

Also, down in Port St. Lucie, the Mets injury bug is back, though he appears to have lost some of his sting. K-Rod has pink-eye.

MID-OLYMPIC EVALUATIONS

I'm writing this while peripherally glancing at Canada-Germany, a game I predicted earlier, to honor the Great Jamie Masdon, that Canada would win 100-6. This one is no surprise, but here' to Joe Thornton for finally scoring a (somewhat) meaningful goal.

Iggy looking for the natural trick...

With nothing but bad press, their backs against the wall, Louie in net, and still the most talented team in the tournament, Canada is not done, and tomorrow's Russia-Canada matchup should be epic. I would be shocked if either side doesn't show up . Of course, as I'm saying this Marcel Goc nets one for Deutschland, and it's only 4-1...

Team by team, here's how I feel about who's left, and yes, I'm going to be rude and just assume that the Czechs and Slovaks will beat Latvia and Norway later tonight:

1. USA: Our strength lies in two places. A) Ryan Miller. I, and everyone else who knows what a puck is have been singing sonnets of his merits for the last two days. This much we know. B) Where I think this team really has an edge, whereas a powerhouse team may not, is not merely in the underdog status, and the lack of pressure implied, but in the certainty of every player's role, whereas with a team like Canada, Mike Babcock has had to shuffle his lines 3 times now, and every player is adjusting to the discomfort of playing different roles with different minutes. Canada, Russia and the like are teams built entirely of superstars, and where this can be a disadvantage is not, in my eyes, in "grit" or "heart", but in awkwardness. Brent Seabrook, Brendan Morrow, and Patrice Bergeron have all played under 30 minutes. Seabrook averages 23 minutes per game in Chicago. This phenomenon may be overly pronounced with these three, but it hits everyone, from Sid on down. Rick Nash:Team Canada does not equal Rick Nash:Columbus, but Patrick Kane:Team USA is not far off from Kane:Chicago. The US has 4 established lines, the way a hockey team should. Kane, Parise, Kessel, Stastny, etc. come out to skate and score, while Drury, Backes etc. come out to bruise. And let me join Jeremy Roenick in apologizing for doubting Chris Drury. His presence has been felt.

Our weakness? Obviously, Rafalski has been tremendous, but I'm just not sure about this D corps all in all, with probably two Canada-esque offenses between here and gold. Tim Gleason, meh. Our success has come very much through our willingness to be hyper-aggressive and chase in the offensive zone, and this leaves room for plenty of counter attack. i'm not sure how long we can get away with this. And yes, when I'm talking about Team USA, I'll say "we".

2. Sweden: As an American, the Swedes scare me more than anyone. They quietly took gold in '06, and they have quietly played as well as, if not better than anyone in '10. For all of the accolades being thrown at Ryan Miller, Lundqvist has yet to surrender a goal. The Swedes may be the best rounded group of the bunch. They have a goalie. They have veteran leaders on the blue line in Lidstrom and Kronwall, as well as young upstarts, a la USA's Johnsons, in Enstrom and Oduya. They have scoring depth, again young and old, and versatility, and most importantly, they have a pair of twins who have hit their prime, both of whom are arguably Hart candidates, playing together as usual, in their element in Vancouver.

Weaknesses? It's tough to truly find one. One could argue that they lack spunk, I suppose, but that may just be because we're so caught up with the North Americans and the Russians that we haven't noticed. Watch out for Sweden.

3. Russia: It's tough to put a firing squad like this together, and just expect it to click. They haven't been bad, by any means, but they haven't exploded the way you want them to, though they looked inspired against the Czechs. Obviously, the story starts and ends with their offense. That isn't to say that they're not defensively talented, but Team Russia is the murderers' row of this tournament. Malkin's move to the top line, in place of Datsyuk, seems to have yielded good results, and beware goalies if all of these scorers find their stroke.

If anything really comes back to bite the Russians, I imagine it will be their stubborn desire to showcase the viability of the KHL, snubbing players like Kovalev and Frolov in the process. Russia could field a full team of NHL'ers, and I just don't buy that, outside of a select few, Morosov probably included, there are many players not in the NHL that should be. Huge game tomorrow against Canada, I imagine whoever comes out of that should be a tough team to crack the confidence of.

4. Finland: Not a bad squad, but they were the last team with a bye somewhat by default. There are a lot of old players here: Selanne, Ruutu, Saku Koivu, Jokinen, Salo, and they've looked it, especially against their national rivals in Sweden. There is supposed to be more animosity in that showdown than in any other, but you wouldn't have known it from Finland's performance.

Their biggest chance, like a few other teams, lies in Kipper getting hot, which he could do, but I expect to see the Czechs take them down tomorrow.

5. Czech Republic: Could NHL team convince Jagr to come hang out back West for a few months? He looks good enough, despite this now infamous hit. The Czechs could have won their group, and the matchup with Russia was closer than the score dictates; they made a very strong push late in the 3rd. Considering that, assuming they beat Latvia tonight, they're playing the weakest link of the bye-seeded teams in Finland tomorrow, they can smell at least a shot at a medal.

The Czech team is kind of like a poor man's Russian team, though perhaps with a better presence between the pipes. They are tremendously talented on offense, but questionable on the blue line. At the risk of being very redundant, Vokoun, like any of his counterparts, could steal a game.

As an aside, the Vancouver crowd, anticipating the end of Canada's rout on Germany, is booming the chant "We Want Russia" in unison. This is gonna be good...

6. Canada: A world of skill, not in sync yet. To be fair, they were fairly bloodthirsty against the US, save Ryan Miller, and have treated the cupcakes the way dream teams are supposed to. Two recent developments bode well for the host nation:

Roberto Luongo may be the best goalie in the world today. We all know what happened with CuJo and Brodeur 8 years ago, and this is being repeated. I don't know why Marty was starting, in the first place. Just the buzz in Vancouver around Luongo in net is enough to justify his place there.

I love the new top line, particularly the pairing of Crosby and Iginla. From a strictly scoring standpoint, think Magic Johnson setting up Reggie Miller, but of course Iggy brings a lot more to the table than his shot. If you know me, you know I have a man-crush on Jarome Iginla, and with as much is made of the perpetual search for the right centreman for him, here he is. It doesn't get better than Sid. These two should be a dynamic presence against the Russians.

7. Slovakia: I predicted some weeks ago that the Slovaks would upset someone, and they did, but my guess is that that was what they had in the tank. They have some incredibly talented players. Chara, Hossa, Halak, and Gaborik are as good a gang of 4 as any team can offer, but the quality of player just thins out too quickly after them. The Swedes are not a shoo-in against them, but I don't expect an upset. Oh, and as an Islander fan, I can't believe that Ziggy Palffy still plays hockey.

8. Switzerland: They've been a good story, one that will end tomorrow at the hands of the US. I like seeing the only Islander in the tournament, Swiss captain Mark Streit, do well for himself, Jonas Hiller has been heroic, and they appear to be as well-coached as any team, but they don't have nearly the depth needed to keep going. I think they could upset some other teams, but to me, Team USA's speed-based attack is the perfect recipe for opening the Swiss trap, as they are probably the most trap-reliant team out there.

TOP PERFORMERS, TO THIS POINT:
1. Henrik Lundqvist, Sweden: No goals against. No one else can say that.
2. Brian Rafalski, USA: Before Canada piled it on on Germany, he led all skaters in points, goals and +/-, and had the two huge ones against Canada.
3. Jarome Iginla, Canada: 1 trick, and a 2 goal effort to boot. Leads the tourney in goals.
4. Jaroslav Halak, Czech Republic: Next on the list in SV% and GAA after Lundqvist and Luongo, but Luongo has faced 5 NHL players to date.
5. Ryan Miller, USA: Performance against Canada alone has to get him on this list.

Let's go get the Swiss!